The aviation industry could be facing a pilot shortage soon. Though the numbers remain relatively low compared to its pre-COVID numbers, we can expect an increase in the demand for domestic and international travel soon. By 2025, there is a likelihood that the demand can exceed that of 2019. As a result, there may be a shortage of at least 34,000 commercial pilots. If the economy recovers faster than expected, there is a chance that we could be seeing a shortage of 50,000 commercial pilots.
Flight Hours and Planes Flying
Planes are flying half their pre-COVID capacity, but the demand for pilots will not be determined by the number of passengers aboard. Instead, you have the number of planes and flight hours that could determine the demand for pilots.
In 2009, the US Congress changed the age of retirement for pilots from 60 to 65 to address the growing shortage of pilots. Unfortunately, a 2016 report from Boeing shows that 42% of pilots are about to hit 65 by 2026.
The COVID19 pandemic made it worse for the aviation industry. US airlines offered early retirement packages to cut costs. And since the pandemic began, 10% of US pilots took the early retirement package.
Ramifications of Pilot Shortage
With a shortage of pilots, we can expect fewer routes. You can expect flights to smaller cities will be canceled by airline companies or perhaps reduced. This will also mean higher fares to compensate for the fewer flights. For pilots who are actively working for airline companies, this could mean higher pay.
This problem didn’t happen in the last 12 months. There are problems that exist even before the pandemic began. Also, a crisis precedes a drop in pilot certifications. After the 9/11 terrorist attack and the 2008 financial crisis, annual pilot certification dropped by 50% according to the Federal Aviation Administration. Once the 2020 numbers are in by Spring, it isn’t surprising to see the same trend happening all over again.
