Major airlines are currently struggling with flight cancelations and delays caused by worker shortages. However, there is another problem on the horizon that could worsen the situation for the industry. Airlines may need 35,000 to 40,000 new pilots in the next decade. That’s the number of new pilots needed to offset those who will go on retirement.
Airline analyst Helane Becker of Cowen said that “We have all these pilots who came on staff in the 1980s and they are approaching 65 years old”. Becker also said that some will choose to retire at age 62.
What Could Happen Without New Pilots?
Becker says that the industry might cut flights in smaller cities. And consequently, airlines will also shrink their profits. For other experts, they believe that airlines need new pilots sooner. Geoff Murray who works at consulting firm Oliver Wyman said that “global pilot shortage will emerge in certain regions no later than 2023 and most probably before”.
Murray also added that “with a more rapid recovery and greater supply shocks, this could be felt as early as late this year”. He also predicts that the industry will need as high as 50,000 new pilots in extreme scenarios.
Airlines Dealing With Peak Holiday Season
Unfortunately, the airline industry has more pressing concerns this holiday season. On Thursday, the industry had 7,624 flight delays and 2,623 cancelations according to FlightAware. Major airlines even proactively scrapped flights.
COVID19 infection among crew members is one of the reasons for the recent worker shortage. The airline industry requested the CDC to shorten the quarantine period for breakthrough cases. The CDC later changed the 10-day quarantine requirement to just 5 days.
CDC now allows asymptomatic individuals and those with improving symptoms to cut short their quarantine period. In a statement, the agency said that “the change is motivated by science”.
However, flight attendants are not happy with the decision. Association of Flight Attendants-CWA International President Sara Nelson said that “We said we wanted to hear from medical professionals on the best guidance for quarantine, not from corporate America advocating for a shortened period due to staffing shortages”.
