During an appearance on the “Airline Confidential” podcast, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby discussed the future of the U.S. airline industry. Kirby directly questioned the long-term viability of American Airlines. In his recent fearless forecast, Kirby said that there will only be two dominant “brand-loyal” full-service airlines in the U.S., and the two airlines he mentioned were United and Delta—implicitly excluding American Airlines.
Kirby expects that the industry will consolidate into major, revenue-diverse, full-service carriers, while “everyone else … is sort of competing for spill traffic.”
American Airlines’ Long-Term Viability Questioned
Kirby suggested that many U.S. airlines are unprofitable, including American Airlines. Since American Airlines is not part of the carriers he considers within the “brand-loyalty” group, he believes that the airline will soon have to cut unprofitable routes. If not, American may experience serious financial strain.
During United’s Q2 earnings call in July 2025, Kirby stated, “I can find at every single one of them [airlines], a double-digit percentage of their route network that loses money.”
Is the Budget Airlines Model Dead?
Kirby also spoke about budget airlines during interviews. He labeled the budget airline model as “dead,” criticizing its hidden fees. He argued that with such a structure, budget airlines lack the brand loyalty needed to survive in the long run.
United Airlines’ Expansion
Earlier this year, United has been expanding at key hubs, especially at Chicago O’Hare Airport. It has increased its daily departures at Chicago O’Hare, gaining a larger market share in both local and connecting flight markets.
Kirby said that with this expansion, it is possible to squeeze American Airlines out of Chicago.
Kirby left American Airlines in 2016 because of conflicts within the executive suite. Robert Isom replaced Kirby. Afterward, Kirby took the position of president at United before being promoted to CEO.
After Kirby’s departure from American Airlines, he commented that United is a premier airline and American is not. American Airlines’ CEO replied to his comment in Q1, saying, “I’ve seen him be right on a lot of stuff. He’s a brilliant man. I’ve seen him wrong on a lot of stuff. In this case, he’s dead wrong.” Isom added, “Scott says this kind of stuff I’m sure, because he would like nothing better than to not have American Airlines as a competitor. We’re a premium product competitor.”
