Days before the official start of “hurricane season,” the first named storm of the year has already formed over the Atlantic Ocean.
Subtropical storm Alberto, which formed early on Friday just east of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, is now dumping heavy rainfall on Cuba and is slowly making its way north across the Gulf of Mexico. As it heads for Florida and Mississippi, it could cause “flash flooding, rip currents, strong winds, coastal flooding and tornadoes,” according to The Weather Channel.
Florida and Mississippi have already declared a state of emergency, with Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant authorizing the use of the National Guard.
“Everyone in our state must be prepared,” said Florida Governor Rick Scott in a statement.
For now, visitors to Cuba and parts of Southern Florida are seeing heavy rains and thunderstorms mar some of their Memorial Day beach plans.
In total, Cuba could get up to 15 inches of rain, according to the National Hurricane Center. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cuba’s Pinar del Rio province, as well as the Dry Tortugas in Florida.
Additionally, the Florida Keys and other parts of South Florida can expect up to 10 inches of rain. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the areas that cover Boca Grande to Anclote River, Aucilla River to Grand Isle, and Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.
Alberto is expected to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, and then approach the northern Gulf Coast by late Monday or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the region “well before” the arrival of Alberto’s center. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast by Monday night, said the National Hurricane Center in its 2:00 p.m. EDT update.
Last year’s hurricane season was catastrophic for many Caribbean nations as well as parts of the United States. When Hurricane Irma made landfall, it was the first time in more than 100 years that two Category 4 hurricanes hit land in the same year.
Despite, Alberto’s early arrival, the National Hurricane Center says there’s a 65 percent chance that the 2018 hurricane season will be near-normal or below normal.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists predict (with a 70 percent likelihood) that there will be 10 to 16 named storms, of which five to nine will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and up to four could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher.)
An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
The 2017 season had “above normal” activity, with 17 named storms, of which 10 became hurricanes, including six major hurricanes.
Note: This story is developing, please check back for updates.